Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.1
22
35,622
U.S. Stocks remain mostly negative in mid-day trading on Friday. With the drop on
Nifty
0.1
10
10,818
the day, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is pulling back off the record closing high set in the
Mid Cap
(0.4)
(64)
16,001
Renewed trade war concerns are contributing to the weakness on
previous session.
Small Cap
(0.5)
(79)
16,961
Wall Street after President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a 25 percent
tariff on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that contain "industrially significant
Bankex
(0.7)
(193)
29,558
technologies”. The Dow Jones was down by 0.3% to 25,091 and the Nasdaq dipped
by 0.2% to 7,746.
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
U.K. stocks ended the session firmly in negative territory. A day after the European
Dow Jones
(0.3)
(85)
25,091
Central Bank announced plans to end its bond purchases, markets tumbled on
Nasdaq
(0.2)
(15)
7,746
renewed concerns over a global trade war. The benchmark FTSE 100 was down by
FTSE
(1.7)
(132)
7,634
1.7% at 7,634.
Nikkei
0.5
113
22,852
On domestic front, Indian shares ended a range-bound session on a flat note Friday
Hang Seng
(0.4)
(131)
30,309
even as pharma stocks extended recent gains and IT stocks rose broadly, led by TCS
Shanghai Com
(0.7)
(22)
3,022
after its board approved a share buyback of 1.99 percent of the equity share capital
amounting to up to Rs. 16,000 crore.
Underlying sentiment remained cautious on
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
renewed trade worries after China said it would retaliate with tariffs of its own if the
U.S. goes ahead with its plans to impose punishing tariffs on tens of billions of
Advances
1,092
817
dollars of Chinese goods. The BSE Sensex was up by 0.1% to 35,622.
Declines
1,567
955
Unchanged
143
90
News Analysis
Quick take on Bata India CMP:-`779 Target Price :- `896
Volumes (` Cr)
Detailed analysis on Pg2
BSE
3,207
NSE
37,545
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
FII
175
432
-1,830
Refer Pg5 onwards
*MFs
98
1,953
61,325
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
649
867
33.6
RCF
78
7.7
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Buy
626
720
15.1
STAR
392
6.5
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
346
410
18.6
APOLLOHOSP
1,030
6.0
Navkar Corporation
Others
Buy
143
230
61.0
NBVENTURES
146
5.1
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
438
589
34.5
More Top Picks on Pg4
MAHLIFE
570
4.9
Key Upcoming Events
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
IBVENTUREPP
300
-5.5
Jun 19, 2018 US
Existing home sales
5.46
5.55
MRPL
90
-5.2
Jun 19, 2018 US
Housing Starts
1,287.00
1,314.00
VAKRANGEE
41
-5.0
Jun 20, 2018 US
Building permits
1,364.00
1,350.00
RAIN
214
-4.9
Jun 21, 2018 US
Initial Jobless claims
218.00
220.00
Jun 21, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
0.20
-
IFCI
17
-4.6
More Events on Pg7
As on June 15, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
News Analysis
Quick take on Bata India CMP:-`779 Target Price: - `896 upside
-15%
About Bata India: Bata India Ltd (BIL) is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across brands like Bata, Hush Puppies,
Naturalizer, Power, Marie Claire, Weinbrenner etc. Currently, BIL’s ~70% revenue
comes from Men & Kids segment and balance from women segment. It retails in
over 1,290 Bata stores, on bata.in and in thousands of multi-brand footwear
dealer stores pan-India.
Outlook & Valuation: We expect BIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~16% to
~`3,555cr over FY2018-20E mainly due increasing brand consciousness amongst
Indian consumers, new product launches, higher number of stores addition in tier
- II and III cities and focus on women segment (high growth segment). Further on
the bottom-line front, we expect CAGR of ~19% to `311cr over the same period
on the back of margin improvement (BIL is increasing premium product sales).
Thus, we recommend BUY rating on the stock with target price of `896.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr)
FY2017
FY2018E
FY2019E
FY2020E
Net Sales
2,474
2,634
3,063
3,555
% chg
2.1
6.5
16.3
16.0
Net Profit
173
221
265
311
% chg
3.9
27.7
20.2
17.3
OPM (%)
10.4
13.3
13.5
13.7
EPS (Rs)
13.4
17.2
20.6
24.2
P/E (x)
58.0
45.4
37.8
32.2
P/BV (x)
7.6
6.7
5.9
5.1
RoE (%)
13.0
14.8
15.6
16.0
RoCE (%)
14.5
19.5
20.3
21.0
EV/Sales (x)
3.8
3.6
3.0
2.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
36.9
26.8
22.4
18.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Economic and Political News
Rice exports to decline by 10% on restrictions from importing countries
Foreign exchange reserves rise by $879.5 million to $413 billion: RBI
IRDAI panel to revisit insurance marketing rules
Norms for FPIs to invest in debt eased, may boost rupee, corporate bonds
Corporate News
Essar Steel lenders may not allow Numetal to change structure in second bid
Sebi rejects Air India's proposal seeking change in listing norms
DoT may clear Voda-Idea merger today; seeks Rs 21 bn bank guarantee
NCLT allows Fortis to withdraw 'arrangement and amalgamation' scheme
SBI-led consortium of lenders to sell stake in debt-ridden Coastal Energen
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,239
649
867
33.6
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to
improve once operating environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,621
626
720
15.1
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster resolution
ICICI Bank
1,81,526
282
416
47.4
of NPA would reduce provision cost, which would
help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,431
438
589
34.5
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,835
322
475
47.7
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Massive capacity expansion along with rail
Navkar Corporation
2,150
143
230
61.0
advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the
company
Strong brands and distribution network would boost
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,887
616
851
38.2
growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an
inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti
2,70,437
8,953
10,619
18.6
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
2,066
384
655
70.8
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over
LT Foods
2,180
68
128
87.8
next two years on the back of strong distribution
network & addition of new products in portfolio.
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,420
637
720
13.1
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
30,795
140
218
55.8
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,907
346
410
18.6
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of
~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to
strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage
Matrimony.com Ltd
1,638
721
1,016
40.9
related services. On the bottom-line front, we
expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same
period on the back margin improvement.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,28,652
2,031
2,315
14.0
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy
growth in automobile segment (on back of new
launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and
M&M
1,12,963
909
1,050
15.5
strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its
strong brand recall and improvement in rural
sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
Amber Enterprises
3,193
1016
1230
21.1
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
Bata India
10,010
779
896
15.0
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory
CCL Products
3,727
280
360
28.5
over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and
new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,494
1,671
2,178
30.3
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,605
2,024
2,500
23.5
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
3,047
249
395
59.0
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market
leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is
expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,261
863
920
6.6
next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from
user industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
33,479
168
210
25.2
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Jun 19, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
May
5.46
5.55
6:00 PMUS
Housing Starts
Thousands
May
1,287.00
1,314.00
Jun 20, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
May
1,364.00
1,350.00
Jun 21, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Jun 16
218.00
220.00
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jun A
0.20
-
4:30 PMUK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Jun 21
0.50
0.50
Jun 22, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Jun P
52.10
52.30
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jun P
56.90
56.20
Jun 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
May
662.00
665.00
Jun 26, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jun
128.00
Jun 28, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
1Q T
2.20
Jun 29, 2018
1:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Jun
(12.00)
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jun
51.90
Jun 30, 2018
2:00 PMUK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
1Q F
1.20
Jul 02, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jun
54.40
Jul 06, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Jun
223.00
185.00
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Jun
3.80
3.80
Jul 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
May
1.80
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
1.80
Jul 11, 2018
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jun
1.00
Jul 12, 2018
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
May
4.90
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
0.20
Jul 13, 2018
7:30 AMChina
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
6.80
Jul 16, 2018
12:00 PMIndia
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.43
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
8.5
10.0
9.0
9.1
7.3
7.5
8.0
7.0
9.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.8
4.8
4.6
4.9
7.0
6.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
5.6
4.0
6.0
3.0
1.8
5.0
2.0
1.0
4.0
1.0
-
3.0
(1.0)
(0.3)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
50.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
48.0
3.0
2.4
2.2
46.0
2.0
1.5
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
6.50
30.0
6.00
25.0
5.50
20.0
5.00
15.0
4.50
10.0
4.00
5.0
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
8.0
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
2.0
0.7
1.5
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
72,122
(15.4)
(17.0)
14.6
Russia
Micex
4,344
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
10,857
0.1
3.7
12.4
China
Shanghai Composite
3,050
(4.6)
(8.5)
(3.1)
South Africa
Top 40
52,200
1.0
(0.9)
14.6
Mexico
Mexbol
46,761
0.5
(3.7)
(4.6)
Indonesia
LQ45
951
3.3
(12.8)
(0.3)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,764
(4.5)
(4.1)
(0.1)
Thailand
SET 50
1,129
(4.3)
(4.3)
13.3
USA
Dow Jones
25,201
1.5
0.8
17.9
UK
FTSE
7,704
(0.3)
6.6
3.8
Japan
Nikkei
22,966
0.4
7.0
14.9
Germany
DAX
12,891
(1.0)
3.5
1.2
France
CAC
5,453
(2.0)
3.8
2.8
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As on June 54, 2018
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
810
1016
Open
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
29-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
Open
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
Open
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
128
Open
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
Source: Company, Angel Research
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
June 18, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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